## Autonomous vehicles are no longer theoretical—they’re operating in select U.S. cities.

As AV fleets expand alongside human-driven rideshare, early signals are emerging in driver productivity, earnings, and platform dynamics. This report compares AV-active markets to national benchmarks to understand how rideshare economics are shifting—and what those changes may signal for the future of autonomy.

## Drivers are spending less time on active trips in AV cities

In Q4 2025, drivers in AV-active markets saw a sharper drop in productivity. Trips per hour declined 5.3% in AV cities vs. 2.6% nationwide—nearly 2× faster.

## Three AV cities saw earnings decline—while nationwide increased

Nationwide, hourly gross pay rose +1.8% YoY in Q4. But in key AV markets, earnings fell: Los Angeles (-3.7%), Phoenix (-0.4%), and San Francisco (-1.7%).

## The $1 barrier that would make or break AVs

S&P Global projects AVs need pricing near $1 per mile to scale sustainably. Even then, AV rides and miles aren’t expected to reach parity with human rideshare until around 2040–2041.

## Want to know where AVs are reshaping the market first?

Download the full report for city-by-city data and insights on where AV rollout is beginning to reshape rideshare economics — and where traditional rideshare markets remain resilient.

### Explore a full year of performance trends in AV Active cities.

_In the full report, you’ll uncover:_

- Year-over-year pay shifts in AV-active markets
- Incentive trends and driver utilization data
- Trips-per-hour metrics across key cities
- A full summary table of platform-level impacts

[Download report](/content/analytics/autonomous-vehicle-impact-on-traditional-rideshare-report#/index.html)